Ceres2030 combines economic modeling and evidence syntheses, bringing together two distinct but powerful tools that constantly interact and feed into each other. This generates the most up-to-date scientific evidence together with financial costs, to inform donors and governments on how and where to target investments to end hunger.
We are designing the framework for an economic model that ends hunger (SDG 2.1), doubles smallholder productivity and incomes (SDG 2.3) and uses resources in an environmentally sustainable way (SDG 2.4).
Simultaneously, we launch an evidence synthesis process to identify the most effective interventions to achieve those same targets, with a focus on those interventions that can be plugged into the economic model.
The evidence syntheses will be published, subject to peer review, as a collection in Nature Plants in 2020. This evidence will be used to modify and introduce new interventions in the economic model and to calculate both the global and individual costs of the most effective agricultural interventions.
Our evidence syntheses will let us look at interventions that currently have insufficient data to be included in our cost model. And they can also help us assess why and how certain interventions included in our cost modelling do and don’t work in practice – going beyond economic estimates to look at legal frameworks, politics and culture.
The evidence syntheses help us identify where we need to collect and process more data, so we can update our cost model parameters and keep making it even better.